Slovenia Election Near-Tie Leaves Coalition Talks to Small Parties

LJUBLJANA, Slovenia — Voters in Slovenia have delivered one of the tightest election results in the country’s history, leaving the next government in the hands of a handful of smaller parties and raising questions about whether the European Union member will stay anchored in the liberal mainstream or edge closer to the nationalist right.

With almost all ballots counted from Sunday’s parliamentary election, Prime Minister Robert Golob’s Freedom Movement won 29 of the 90 seats in the National Assembly, just one more than the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party of former Prime Minister Janez Janša, which took 28.

The near-tie means neither bloc can govern alone. Golob’s weakened center-left alliance has lost its majority, while a strengthened right-of-center camp — including a breakaway conservative party and a new anti-vaccine protest movement — holds enough seats to form a government if it can agree on a leader and a program.

On Monday, President Nataša Pirc Musar urged party leaders to start bargaining without delay. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, she said she was calling on them to “sit down at the negotiating table as soon as possible,” adding that Slovenia needed a stable cabinet “quickly” after the tight outcome.

Fragmented parliament, narrow margin

Official preliminary results show the Freedom Movement, a liberal, green-leaning party formed just four years ago, winning 28.63% of the vote. Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party, known by its Slovenian initials SDS, took 27.95%. The difference between the two was fewer than 8,000 votes.

Turnout was 69.45%, slightly lower than in 2022 but still high by regional standards.

Behind the two front-runners, the Christian-democratic New Slovenia (NSi) secured 9 seats, cementing its position as the third force on the right. The center-left Social Democrats won 6 seats, as did the newly formed Democrats, a center-right party led by Anže Logar, a former SDS foreign minister who broke with Janša.

A joint list of the Left and the green party Vesna took 5 seats. The protest movement Resni.ca — which emerged from mass demonstrations against COVID-19 restrictions and is widely described as anti-establishment and anti-mandate — also entered parliament for the first time with 5 seats.

Two additional lawmakers are elected separately to represent Italy’s and Hungary’s national minorities, bringing the total to 90 members of parliament. The majority threshold is 46.

Taken together, Golob’s outgoing coalition partners — the Freedom Movement, Social Democrats and the Left — now control 40 seats, down from 53 when they took office in 2022. A broad conservative and right-populist camp consisting of SDS, NSi, Logar’s Democrats and Resni.ca commands 48 of the 88 party-list seats.

From landslide to limbo

The result marks a sharp comedown for Golob, a former energy executive who led the Freedom Movement to a landslide victory in April 2022 on a wave of anti-Janša sentiment and promises to defend judicial independence, media freedom and environmental protections. His party’s 41 seats in that election were the strongest showing by any single list since Slovenia gained independence from Yugoslavia in 1991.

In office, Golob moved quickly to roll back some measures introduced under Janša’s last government, including changes affecting public broadcasting and the national anti-corruption commission. But his cabinet has struggled with rising living costs, long hospital waiting lists and a series of scandals and ministerial reshuffles that eroded its image of competence.

The Freedom Movement has now lost 12 seats compared with 2022. While it remains the largest party, it no longer has a clear path to retain power without bringing in at least one center-right partner.

A renewed three-party center-left coalition with the Social Democrats and the Left would fall six seats short of a majority. To govern, Golob would have to persuade either NSi or Logar’s Democrats — or both — to join a cross-ideological alliance, or attempt a broader “rainbow” coalition involving nearly all parties except SDS and Resni.ca.

Janša’s opening, and his limits

The election also represents a comeback opportunity for Janša, Slovenia’s dominant right-wing figure for three decades. The 65-year-old has served three times as prime minister, most recently from 2020 to 2022, when his government’s confrontations with journalists, civil society groups and EU institutions drew frequent comparisons with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Janša has long cultivated a close relationship with Orbán, whose political allies have helped finance media outlets linked to SDS. He has also aligned himself with former U.S. President Donald Trump, congratulating Trump on victory in 2020 before all votes were counted and later echoing claims about irregularities in U.S. elections.

In 2018, SDS emerged as the largest party in Slovenia’s parliament but was unable to form a government after most other parties refused to join a coalition under Janša. Instead, a minority center-left government led by comedian-turned-politician Marjan Šarec took office with external support from the Left.

This time, Janša’s path back to the premiership depends on two moderate conservative forces: NSi and Logar’s Democrats. Together with Resni.ca, they could give him a working majority of 48 seats.

However, any deal that brings the protest party into government risks alarming centrist voters and EU partners. Resni.ca is best known for organizing large demonstrations against COVID-19 passes in 2021 and for its harsh criticism of vaccinations and pandemic measures. Opponents and some analysts have accused it of spreading misinformation and being sympathetic to Russian narratives, accusations it has rejected.

NSi, which identifies as pro-European and Christian-democratic, has served in both SDS-led and centrist coalitions in the past and may seek to avoid being tied to the more radical right. Logar, who presents himself as a pragmatic conservative and ran a relatively moderate campaign for the presidency in 2022, faces a similar calculation.

A test for the political middle

The decisions that NSi and Logar’s Democrats make in the coming weeks will be crucial in determining Slovenia’s direction.

A right-of-center alliance led by SDS, with NSi and Logar providing a more technocratic, pro-EU face and Resni.ca supplying extra votes, would likely mean a tougher line on migration, a more confrontational stance on media and NGOs, and a closer alignment with conservative governments in Central Europe.

A broad centrist coalition that keeps SDS and Resni.ca in opposition — for example, pairing Golob’s Freedom Movement with the Social Democrats, the Left, Logar’s Democrats and possibly NSi — would secure a comfortable majority but could prove unwieldy, with deep internal divides on taxes, social policy and security issues.

If no stable coalition emerges, Slovenia’s constitution allows the president to propose multiple candidates for prime minister. If parliament fails to elect any of them, the president can dissolve the legislature and call new elections, potentially prolonging uncertainty.

A divided country, and a wider European pattern

The near-even split between the Freedom Movement and SDS reflects deep societal cleavages. Urban, younger and more socially liberal voters have tended to back Golob and his allies, while more rural, older and socially conservative citizens often favor SDS, NSi or protest movements such as Resni.ca.

The election also mirrors broader trends across the EU, where liberal and green forces are locked in competition with nationalist and populist parties from the Netherlands to Slovakia. Slovenia’s choice of government will affect its stance in debates over rule of law, media freedom, climate policy and the war in Ukraine, where the outgoing government has supported sanctions against Russia and military aid to Kyiv.

For now, the only clear outcome is that no single party is in control. The Freedom Movement has won the most seats but lost much of its dominance; the right has grown stronger but remains divided over how far it is willing to go with Janša and his allies.

As coalition talks begin behind closed doors in Ljubljana, the country faces a familiar paradox: in Slovenia’s fragmented political landscape, winning the election and winning power are not the same thing.