Nepal’s Anti-Establishment RSP Sweeps Election, Balen Shah Poised for Premiership

JHAPA, Nepal — On a dusty school ground near the Indian border, in a constituency that once symbolized the power of Nepal’s communist old guard, the loudest chant this month was for a former battle rapper in a black hoodie.

A political upset in Jhapa — and nationwide

Balendra “Balen” Shah, a 35-year-old structural engineer and former mayor of Kathmandu, did not just defeat former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli in Jhapa-5. As results from Nepal’s March 5 parliamentary elections rolled in, Shah’s upstart Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) swept across the country, shattering the decades-long dominance of the Nepali Congress and the main communist parties and leaving Shah poised to become prime minister.

Preliminary tallies from the Election Commission show the centrist, anti-establishment RSP winning 125 of 165 directly elected constituencies in the 275-seat House of Representatives. Combined with its strong showing in the proportional representation ballot, the party is projected to hold about 182 seats — just two short of the two-thirds majority needed to unilaterally amend the constitution.

The first vote since the 2025 Gen Z protests

It is the first national vote since youth-led “Gen Z” protests in September 2025 forced Oli from office after deadly clashes over a government ban on major social media platforms. Many of the young demonstrators who faced tear gas and live ammunition in those protests say they saw this month’s election as a way to finish what began on the streets.

“Last year we were shouting outside the gates,” said 22-year-old student activist Sushmita K.C. in Kathmandu, recalling the protests against the social media ban and corruption. “This time, we decided to change things from inside the system.”

Turnout in the election, held under Nepal’s mixed electoral system, was about 58% to 60%, lower than the 2022 vote. But observers and local media reported particularly heavy participation by young and urban voters, the demographic most mobilized by the Gen Z movement.

Under the 2015 constitution, Nepal’s lower house has 275 members, with 165 chosen by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies and 110 allocated by national party lists using proportional representation. The March 5 polls were called early after President Ram Chandra Paudel dissolved Parliament last year and appointed former Chief Justice Sushila Karki to lead an interim government.

How the unrest began

The immediate trigger for the 2025 unrest was the government’s decision on Sept. 4 that year to block access to platforms including Facebook, WhatsApp, YouTube and X, citing regulatory concerns. The ban collided with simmering anger over unemployment, a high-profile series of financial scandals and social media campaigns targeting the children of senior politicians as “nepo kids” benefiting from patronage.

Protests swelled in Kathmandu and other cities. Rights groups say security forces used excessive force, including live rounds, against largely unarmed demonstrators. Estimates of the death toll range from just over 50 to more than 70.

On Sept. 9, Oli resigned amid mounting pressure. The social media ban was lifted, an interim cabinet was sworn in under Karki and early elections were promised.

Shah’s rise and a risky alliance

Shah, though not an organizer of the protests, became one of their most visible political symbols. As an independent elected mayor of Kathmandu in 2022, he built a profile by publicly confronting builders over illegal structures, clashing with ministries over local powers and using music and social media to rail against corruption.

His decision in late December 2025 to join forces with the RSP — founded and still chaired by former television host Rabi Lamichhane — transformed the party from a smaller urban force into a national vehicle for anti-establishment sentiment. Shah resigned as mayor on Jan. 18 to run for Parliament as RSP’s prime ministerial candidate.

The partnership has not been without controversy. Lamichhane, who previously served as home minister, has been linked to alleged fraud in Nepal’s cooperative sector and has faced legal questions over his citizenship. He has denied wrongdoing, but the cases raised questions about whether a party promising clean government would be willing to investigate its own founder if it comes to power.

A manifesto built around governance and jobs

RSP leaders argue their landslide reflects a demand for systemic change. The party’s 2026 manifesto pledges to tighten anti-corruption laws, create dedicated anti-graft police under the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority, overhaul the civil service, digitize public services and channel up to 60% of the national budget to provincial and local governments.

The program also emphasizes job creation through investment in agriculture, hydropower, tourism and information technology to stem the outflow of young workers abroad.

“We are not here just to change faces,” Shah told supporters during the campaign in Kathmandu, in remarks carried by local broadcasters. “We are here to change how the state works.”

The old guard’s collapse

The scale of the shift became clear as seat counts accumulated. The Nepali Congress, long one of Nepal’s two main parties, is expected to hold only a few dozen seats, a fraction of its presence in the outgoing legislature. The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), or CPN-UML, which led the government toppled by the Gen Z protests, won only a handful of constituencies and saw its vote share fall sharply.

Oli’s personal defeat in Jhapa-5 was particularly symbolic. Shah won 68,348 votes there, according to figures released by election authorities, the highest total recorded by any candidate in a Nepali parliamentary election. Oli received 18,734 votes, giving Shah a margin of nearly 50,000 and ending the former prime minister’s long grip on the southeastern seat.

Leaders of the traditional parties have publicly accepted the verdict, while hinting at internal soul-searching ahead. Officials from both Congress and UML told local media in recent days that they would review their organizational structures and policy platforms after what one editorial in Kathmandu described as a “historic collapse” of the old guard.

Business groups have reacted with cautious optimism to the prospect of a relatively unified government after years of shifting coalitions. The Confederation of Nepalese Industries said a strong mandate could, if used for reforms, help restore investor confidence, while urging the new leadership to provide policy stability and avoid sudden regulatory shocks.

Regional attention from India and China

Abroad, the vote has drawn close attention from Nepal’s two giant neighbors.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called Shah and Lamichhane to congratulate them after results became clear. Modi said in a statement that India-Nepal ties would “reach new heights” under the incoming government and emphasized cooperation in development and connectivity. Indian commentators have portrayed the defeat of Nepal’s left parties, which New Delhi saw as closer to Beijing, as a setback for China and an opportunity to deepen economic integration with Kathmandu.

China has issued only brief official remarks, congratulating Nepal on the completion of its elections. Analysts in Beijing and elsewhere, however, say the outcome could prompt scrutiny of projects linked to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and reduce the influence of political allies China had cultivated over the past decade.

RSP figures have signaled they will pursue what they call a “national interest first” foreign policy, balancing ties with India and China while seeking greater economic benefits from both.

Accountability and expectations

At home, civil society groups are watching how the new parliament will handle accountability for the 2025 protest deaths, reforms to policing and protections for freedoms that were at the heart of the Gen Z movement, including online expression. Human rights advocates have urged the next government to authorize independent investigations into the use of force and to codify stricter rules of engagement for security forces.

For many younger voters, the question is whether the outsiders they elevated can remain outsiders once in office.

“We voted for them because they are not like the old parties,” said 24-year-old software worker Prabin Tharu in Lalitpur. “If they start behaving the same way, people will go back to the streets.”

As Shah prepares to be invited to form a government in the coming days, he will inherit not only the most powerful parliamentary position any Nepali leader has held since the end of the monarchy, but also a generation’s worth of expectations built on protest, trauma and the promise that this time, politics will be different.