WMO Forecasts 55% Probability of Weak La Niña Event by 2026

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced a 55% probability of a weak La Niña event developing between December 2025 and February 2026, signaling potential shifts in global weather patterns. (wmo.int)

La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, influencing atmospheric circulation and weather worldwide. Despite its typical cooling effect on global temperatures, the WMO notes that many regions are still expected to experience warmer-than-normal conditions during this period. (wmo.int)

As of mid-November 2025, oceanic and atmospheric indicators revealed borderline La Niña conditions. The WMO's Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction estimate a 55% chance of these conditions meeting the full La Niña thresholds during the December–February 2025–2026 period. (wmo.int)

La Niña events can significantly impact global weather patterns, agriculture, and water resources. They often lead to increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others, affecting crop yields and food security. Variations in water availability can impact reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater supplies, necessitating adjustments in water management strategies. Additionally, certain areas may face an increased risk of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, and hurricanes.

Historically, La Niña events have varied in intensity and duration, with each event's impact depending on its strength and regional conditions at the time. Comparing the current forecast with previous events can provide insights into potential outcomes and necessary preparations.

The WMO emphasizes the importance of accurate seasonal forecasts for climate-sensitive sectors, stating that such forecasts can lead to substantial economic benefits and help save lives by enabling better preparation in sectors such as agriculture, energy, health, and transport. (wmo.int)

Understanding the specifics of this forecast is essential for assessing potential impacts on global weather, agriculture, water resources, and disaster preparedness. By examining historical data, potential effects, and preparedness strategies, stakeholders can better navigate the challenges posed by such events.