US Faces $7 Billion Hit as International Student Enrollment Plummets

The United States is poised to experience a significant economic setback as projections indicate a 15% decline in international student enrollment for the upcoming fall semester, potentially resulting in a $7 billion loss and over 60,000 job cuts. This anticipated downturn is attributed to recent policy changes, including visa interview suspensions, limited appointment availability, declining visa issuance, and new travel bans affecting 19 countries.

In July 2025, NAFSA: Association of International Educators, in collaboration with JB International, released a report highlighting these concerns. The analysis anticipates a 30–40% decrease in new international student enrollments, leading to an overall 15% drop in total international student enrollment. This decline is expected to deprive local economies of $7 billion in spending and more than 60,000 jobs.

Several factors contribute to this projected decline:

• Visa Interview Suspension: Between May 27 and June 18, 2025, the U.S. Department of State paused student visa interviews during a peak issuance period. The resumption of interviews on June 18 introduced new social media vetting protocols, further delaying the visa issuance process.

• Limited Appointment Availability: Reports indicate limited or no visa appointments in key countries such as India, China, Nigeria, and Japan. These nations are among the top sources of international students for U.S. institutions, making the lack of appointments particularly impactful.

• Declining Visa Issuance: F-1 visa issuance declined by 12% from January to April 2025 and by 22% in May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. June 2025 data has not been published, but a decrease of 80–90% is possible based on the factors identified.

• Visa Bans: On June 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation imposing travel restrictions on nationals from 19 countries, citing national security concerns. The full ban applies to nationals from 12 countries, including Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, and Somalia, while partial restrictions affect seven additional countries, such as Cuba and Venezuela. These restrictions impact various visa categories, including those commonly used by international students.

The projected decline in international student enrollment is expected to have substantial economic repercussions. NAFSA's analysis estimates a potential $7 billion loss to the U.S. economy and the elimination of over 60,000 jobs. International students contribute significantly to local economies through tuition, housing, and other expenditures. Beyond the immediate economic impact, the decrease in international students may affect innovation, global competitiveness, and the diversity of academic environments in U.S. institutions.

This situation echoes previous travel bans implemented during President Trump's first term, notably the 2017 travel ban that faced legal challenges and was eventually upheld by the Supreme Court in 2018. The current restrictions are broader, affecting a larger number of countries and visa categories, and come at a time when higher education institutions are striving to recover from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In response to these developments, NAFSA urges the State Department to:

1. Provide expedited visa appointments and processing for all F-1 and M-1 students and J-1 exchange visitor applicants.
2. Exempt F and M students, as well as J exchange visitors, from the travel restrictions currently banning the entry of nationals from 19 countries, while maintaining necessary background checks and vetting.

The projected decline in international student enrollment poses significant economic and academic challenges for the United States. Addressing visa processing issues and reconsidering travel restrictions are crucial steps to mitigate these impacts and maintain the country's position as a global leader in higher education.